Ominous Signs on the Jordanian Horizon

This is a subject I did not pay a lot attention to on the assumption that eventually things will be straightened out. But now one story after the other make me more and more nervous about the future of the Jordanian King.

King Abdallah II of Jordan. The King rules one of the thorniest places in the world where one political mistake could doom the kingdom and the whole region. King Abdallah inherited his throne from his father the late King Hussein who was one of the shrewdest politicians in the world. The throne was destined for Price Hassan (Abdallah's uncle) but palace intrigue and perhaps US interference resulted in a King Hussein changing his opinion days before his certain death in circumstances that are yet to be fully told.

It all started earlier this year. King Abdallah invited executive from a major US company to his palace in Amman. Those executives described to me later that the King offered to them land, no taxes, and all kinds of special treatment in exchange for that major US company setting any shop in Jordan. After meeting with the King, the visiting executives met privately with some of the King advisors who gave an entrirely different image. They described a recent royal visit to the US in which the King gambled and lost his private jet that he inherited from his father late King Hussein. A royal Jordanian airplane was scrambled to ferry the king back to Jordan and the event was portrayed in Jordan as royal humbleness to go back on a regular scheduled flight. They advisors also spoke of Queen Rania disenchantment with the King and spending most of her time outside the royal palace away from King Abdallah. Friends also told me that the king is alcoholic and he abhors the tribal leaders that his father used to pay homage to and that in the advisors’ opinion, is destabilizing the vital kingdom.

That was one story. I didn't pay a lot of attention to it at the time. I thought maybe these were sour advisors or maybe the story is exaggerated.

Queen Rania I am told is so dispproving of the King's behavior to the extent she spends most of her time travelling around the world.

But soon after came the 2nd story from Jordan. The King while on a visit to the US, floated the idea of establishing a movie academy on the red sea that will serve all of the Middle East. The King wanted it to be a joint project involving Israelis, Jordanians, and the rest of the Arab world. The King asked Steve Spielberg to advise him on the project. Steve recommended University of Southern California to operate the center, which is now supposed to start in 2008. Steve selected USC of course because he is on its board of trustees. Steve didn’t even attend the dedication ceremony. One Israeli prospective student spoke to the press about the need for such a center that will help bring peace in the Middle East (?!) and that there is need for such a center because there is no movie industry to speak of in the Middle East (?!).

A news article in the Jerusalem Post about the new Jordanian Cinema center. There are several alamrming signs: (1) Steve Spielberg didn't even bother attending the cermonies even though the idea is his brainchild. (2) This whole business that the Middle East needs a cinema academy jointly with Israel is honestly funny. The Middle East has a cinema tradition that pre-dates the creation of Israel and Egypt produces more movies than most European nations including the UK -- not to speak of Israel. This whole project has more show business to it than real thinking. I am not against creating joint institutes with Israel or anybody but you have to calculate what is in it for you.

Then, came the latest straw. Jordan nominated a prince Zaid (when I heard of it I said who is that?) to be a UN secretary general. First of all, this was my first time to hear the name of Jordan’s nominee. No doubt the guy lacked the necessary international credentials. Second, his name was floated in the last minute without any preparation. These nominations consume the good part of at least a year to do the proper lobbying and test the waters. Some how, the King thought that he can just float a name of a prince and that would be enough. Then, when as expected the nomination didn’t work, the King turned to Qatar and blamed her for the debacle. The reason of course is that Qatar is richer and more mature in its foreign relations compared to Jordan under the King. The Qatari didn’t even bother to respond. Give me a break, if the nominee was Prince Hassan, maybe I could have understood but Zaid who?

Jordan withdrew its Ambassador to Qatar because Doha did not support the Jordanian nominee for the UN secretary general post. Out of the 15 security council members, the Jordanian nominee got no votes. Jordan FM called Arab capitals asking for support of its nominee. As always, Arab capital promised "Kol Khair" or "All will be well", a code word for "get lost." Jordan --living in its own surreal world -- thought that is enough to gain support. The Jordanian king thought that is his silver bullet to raise his stature in the world. The result: a diplomatic fiasco of the first grade for a King who is living in his own world.

Finally in October, an article in the Los Angeles Times compared the King to the deposed Shah of Iran. This is now getting to be risky business. It is the responsibility of Arab leaders to help the Jordanian King mature.

The Last Straw: An article in the LA Times comparing King Abdallah behavior to the Shah of Iran. LA Times is strongly tied to the US democratic party and the Brookings Institute. This means that some in the US establishment are getting worried about the fate of the Jordanian King and his vital kingdom. Those some in Washington wanted to start sending a message of "watch out" to the king. He really does need to watch out.

Bashar Al-Assad with his son Hafez. This whole business of passing the throne to each leader's son because the son is cute, speaks English well, spent sometime in the United Kingdom, and looks modern is sort of getting on the crazy side. In a separate debacle, Bashar Assad described Arab leaders (he truly meant President Mubarak of Egypt, King Abdallah of Saudi Arabia, and King Abdallah of Jordan) as being half-men. Later Bashar discovered that both Egypt and Saudi Arabia can do him a good deal of harm or even let the US unleashed -- not a good option at all. Bashar's rashness is a sign of immaturity in a region that cannot take this kind of political trial and error. Later Bashar tried to pretend that he didn't really mean Saudi Arabia or Egypt and like any spoiled kid who recognized he has made a mistake, tried to say sorry without exactly saying it. The new crop of Arab leaders cannot change their diapers at the expense of their own nations, can they?

This whole business of passing the throne to immature kids is very risky. We see those risks every day. This period will go in history as the "era of kids."

An old Egyptian movie titled: "For A Bunch of Kids" The movie explains how lots of people should sacrifice to save the kids. However, I doubt the movie meant a whole nation though?