Sunday, October 08, 2006

Ominous Signs on the Jordanian Horizon

This is a subject I did not pay a lot attention to on the assumption that eventually things will be straightened out. But now one story after the other make me more and more nervous about the future of the Jordanian King.

King Abdallah II of Jordan. The King rules one of the thorniest places in the world where one political mistake could doom the kingdom and the whole region. King Abdallah inherited his throne from his father the late King Hussein who was one of the shrewdest politicians in the world. The throne was destined for Price Hassan (Abdallah's uncle) but palace intrigue and perhaps US interference resulted in a King Hussein changing his opinion days before his certain death in circumstances that are yet to be fully told.

It all started earlier this year. King Abdallah invited executive from a major US company to his palace in Amman. Those executives described to me later that the King offered to them land, no taxes, and all kinds of special treatment in exchange for that major US company setting any shop in Jordan. After meeting with the King, the visiting executives met privately with some of the King advisors who gave an entrirely different image. They described a recent royal visit to the US in which the King gambled and lost his private jet that he inherited from his father late King Hussein. A royal Jordanian airplane was scrambled to ferry the king back to Jordan and the event was portrayed in Jordan as royal humbleness to go back on a regular scheduled flight. They advisors also spoke of Queen Rania disenchantment with the King and spending most of her time outside the royal palace away from King Abdallah. Friends also told me that the king is alcoholic and he abhors the tribal leaders that his father used to pay homage to and that in the advisors’ opinion, is destabilizing the vital kingdom.

That was one story. I didn't pay a lot of attention to it at the time. I thought maybe these were sour advisors or maybe the story is exaggerated.

Queen Rania I am told is so dispproving of the King's behavior to the extent she spends most of her time travelling around the world.


But soon after came the 2nd story from Jordan. The King while on a visit to the US, floated the idea of establishing a movie academy on the red sea that will serve all of the Middle East. The King wanted it to be a joint project involving Israelis, Jordanians, and the rest of the Arab world. The King asked Steve Spielberg to advise him on the project. Steve recommended University of Southern California to operate the center, which is now supposed to start in 2008. Steve selected USC of course because he is on its board of trustees. Steve didn’t even attend the dedication ceremony. One Israeli prospective student spoke to the press about the need for such a center that will help bring peace in the Middle East (?!) and that there is need for such a center because there is no movie industry to speak of in the Middle East (?!).

A news article in the Jerusalem Post about the new Jordanian Cinema center. There are several alamrming signs: (1) Steve Spielberg didn't even bother attending the cermonies even though the idea is his brainchild. (2) This whole business that the Middle East needs a cinema academy jointly with Israel is honestly funny. The Middle East has a cinema tradition that pre-dates the creation of Israel and Egypt produces more movies than most European nations including the UK -- not to speak of Israel. This whole project has more show business to it than real thinking. I am not against creating joint institutes with Israel or anybody but you have to calculate what is in it for you.


Then, came the latest straw. Jordan nominated a prince Zaid (when I heard of it I said who is that?) to be a UN secretary general. First of all, this was my first time to hear the name of Jordan’s nominee. No doubt the guy lacked the necessary international credentials. Second, his name was floated in the last minute without any preparation. These nominations consume the good part of at least a year to do the proper lobbying and test the waters. Some how, the King thought that he can just float a name of a prince and that would be enough. Then, when as expected the nomination didn’t work, the King turned to Qatar and blamed her for the debacle. The reason of course is that Qatar is richer and more mature in its foreign relations compared to Jordan under the King. The Qatari didn’t even bother to respond. Give me a break, if the nominee was Prince Hassan, maybe I could have understood but Zaid who?

Jordan withdrew its Ambassador to Qatar because Doha did not support the Jordanian nominee for the UN secretary general post. Out of the 15 security council members, the Jordanian nominee got no votes. Jordan FM called Arab capitals asking for support of its nominee. As always, Arab capital promised "Kol Khair" or "All will be well", a code word for "get lost." Jordan --living in its own surreal world -- thought that is enough to gain support. The Jordanian king thought that is his silver bullet to raise his stature in the world. The result: a diplomatic fiasco of the first grade for a King who is living in his own world.


Finally in October, an article in the Los Angeles Times compared the King to the deposed Shah of Iran. This is now getting to be risky business. It is the responsibility of Arab leaders to help the Jordanian King mature.

The Last Straw: An article in the LA Times comparing King Abdallah behavior to the Shah of Iran. LA Times is strongly tied to the US democratic party and the Brookings Institute. This means that some in the US establishment are getting worried about the fate of the Jordanian King and his vital kingdom. Those some in Washington wanted to start sending a message of "watch out" to the king. He really does need to watch out.

Bashar Al-Assad with his son Hafez. This whole business of passing the throne to each leader's son because the son is cute, speaks English well, spent sometime in the United Kingdom, and looks modern is sort of getting on the crazy side. In a separate debacle, Bashar Assad described Arab leaders (he truly meant President Mubarak of Egypt, King Abdallah of Saudi Arabia, and King Abdallah of Jordan) as being half-men. Later Bashar discovered that both Egypt and Saudi Arabia can do him a good deal of harm or even let the US unleashed -- not a good option at all. Bashar's rashness is a sign of immaturity in a region that cannot take this kind of political trial and error. Later Bashar tried to pretend that he didn't really mean Saudi Arabia or Egypt and like any spoiled kid who recognized he has made a mistake, tried to say sorry without exactly saying it. The new crop of Arab leaders cannot change their diapers at the expense of their own nations, can they?

This whole business of passing the throne to immature kids is very risky. We see those risks every day. This period will go in history as the "era of kids."

An old Egyptian movie titled: "For A Bunch of Kids" The movie explains how lots of people should sacrifice to save the kids. However, I doubt the movie meant a whole nation though?

Sunday, October 01, 2006

Egypt Air Flight 990

This time of the year brings shivers to me. For most, it is a reminder that winter is closing in. For me, it is a reminder of Egypt Air Flight 990.


Egypt Air Flight 990 Boeing 767 that crashed off the US Atlantic Coast while on a routine flight from JFK to Cairo. I still today remember the first time I set foot on the exact same plane back in 1997. That very second you enter the plane, you feel you are in Egypt. I remember the voice of the Captain reciting Quran during taxi, the music of Rafaat Al-Hagan filling the plane during embarkation (composer Ammar Al-Sharie picture top), and the Egyptian air attendants who to me looked as if they were coming alive from a Mahmoud Said portrait of Egyptian girls (Banat Bahari or "Coastal Girls", Center).


I flew on that same plane with that same crew several times. In fact, for few hours after the first news of the accident, I had relatives who thought I was on that exact flight that crashed off the US Atlantic Coast on October 31, 1999. I feel indebted to those who died on that flight to dig for the truth. This is my attempt to do exactly that.

It is not my intention here to recall the media frenzy and the accusations exchanged across the Atlantic. That was a foreshadow of the "war on terror" and a neglected sign of the yawning cultural gap that is becoming now a clash of civilizations. Neither will I get into technical discussions about the plane's thrust reversers or Al-Batouti's personal life. Instead, we go about doing some basic statistical analysis that we will find at the end to be quite revealing.


Data...Data...and More Data

The first step in this analysis is to collect airline accident data excluding those caused by terrorism. I found my destination in the website http://www.airdisaster.com






Accident rate of Egypt Air compared to other airlines in Africa and the Middle East. Only Air Zimbabwe and Royal Jordanian is worse than Egypt Air! Accident rate is the most fundamental metric that any airline should keep an eye on. This should come before service quality or even on-time arrival and departure.



The whole list of airline accident rate worldwide (source: http://www.airdisasters.com). It is clear there is a disparity among airlines. The typical excuse for Egypt Air and the Egyptian government is to explain the disparity by resource availability. That may explain the difference between the accident rate of US airlines and Egypt Air, but it fails to explain why Morocco, Kenya, or Ethiopia (the latter being among the poorest countries on Earth) are having lower accident rate than Egypt Air.

Relationship between Accident Rate and Country's GDP: To address the typical Egyptian government low income excuse, I plotted the airline accident rate vs. the country's GDP. The graph shows the following patterns:

(1) The United States leads the world in airline safety except for the new low cost carriers (Air Tran, which is the only one we have data for).

(2) The US is followed by Western Europe and Japan where there is quite a bit of variability but they are all share an accident rate that is less than 4 per million flights.

(3) Sliding toward lower income countries (to the left of the graph), we hit Gulf Arab airlines whose accident rate is comparable to the best in the world.

(4) Moving more to the left, we start to hit lower income countries where there is some trend of increasing average accident rate with declining income. However, more than 80% of all low-income countries have an accident rate that is lower than 5. Only outliners such as Egypt Air have a higher accident rate.

Therefore, the Egyptian government low-income excuse account for only an accident rte of 5. The additional 3 accidents per million flights that Egypt Air has cannot be explained by low income or unavailable resources. There is something else and as we will discover later it is mostly neglect and incompetence.

Number of accidents by itself is not a good indication. Simply if one airlines has an accident every other flight, its safety record is much worse than another which has an accident every 2 million flights. Therefore, the criterion to look for is the accident rate defined as number of accidents (excluding those caused by terrorism) every million flights.



The definition of accident is not very straightforward. Some accidents cause hundreds of fatalities, while other are minor upsets. It turns out that there is a specific definition agreed upon in which accidents are given a rating based on their severity. Accidents leading to any fatalities as a direct cause of the accident are given a rating of 1, while minor ones are given rating that is less than 1 and that is dependent on the level of accident severity.



The accident rate is the division of number of accidents and the number of opportunities to have an accident. An airline is good if it has very low accident rate -- meaning in all given opportunities to have an accident, its number of accidents is low. The opportunities here are measured by number of flights (defined as one take-off and one landing). Number of flights may not be the best indication of number of opportunities. Some may argue that during long flights, an airline has more opportunities than in a 30 minute one. Therefore, one should divide the number of accidents by flight hours (rather than number of flights) to get the true accident rate. This may be the case. However, I couldn't find data on number of flight hours. Besides, my pilot friends tell me that most of the risk during a flight is during take-off and landing. In long trans-continental flights, the risk during cruising is minimal. Therefore, I will consider the accident rate definition as is to be adequate.

Airplanes Accident Rate Data: Most airplanes in the world have great safety track record. This is most likely explained by the significant entry barrier to become an airplane manufacturer and the tough safety regulations and oversight in the manufacturing countries. Compare that to the relatively smaller entry barrier to become an airline. Any government in the world can create its own airline.

Not Exactly the Bottom of the Barrel, But Close


After collecting all the data, we turn next to analyzing the data.

Let us first look at the histogram of accident rates and airlines. The histogram shows that Egypt Air with accident rate = 8 is in the worst 10% of the population of all airlines around the world.


Historgram of World Airlines. Sad to say that Egypt Air ranks in the worst 10% of all world airlines.

Even in Africa and the Middle East, Egypt Air is worse than Saudi Arabia (which has twice the number of flights), Nigeria Air, Iran Air, Air Maroc, …. The only worse airlines are:

1- Royal Jordanian (8.82 accidents per million flights)
2- China Airlines (10.2)
3- Air Zimbabwe (12.5)
4- Aeroperu (16.7)
5- Cubana (24)

This is certainly not a distinguished place to be in. It is not exactly at the bottom of the barrel (as Cubana is) but is not really far away from that.

Is Egypt Air Just Unlucky? Is Boeing 767 Just A Bad Plane?

I asked myself, could it be that Egypt Air is just unlucky? Can it be that the Boeing 767 (the airplane equipment used for flight 990) is a bad model? Can it be that the Boeing 767 is just the culprit of airline accidents -- Egypt Air or otherwise?
Let us look at the accident rate of planes, again excluding hi-jacking:

With an accident rate of 0.46, the Boeing 767 has a solid track record for sure. It actually ranks # 3 among all airplanes, which makes it in the top 15%. Therefore, it cannot be that the Boeing 767 as a model is just a bad one. In fact, we could now ask the question: what is the probability that if an accident occurs on an Egypt Air Boeing 767, that the airline or the plane will be responsible…

We have some complication in answering this question. This is simply because the accident rate on Boeing 767 reflects all airlines using it whether good or bad, so the number we get there doesn’t represent the airplane responsibility itself, but the average of all users on that plane. Similarly, and to be fair, the accident rate on Egypt Air doesn’t mean that the airline itself is poor but can be that its airplanes themselves are poor.

To trace an answer to that question, we need to examine the accident rate of Egypt Air accident by accident and see the details of each one.

Here is the list of Egypt Air accidents:
2 January 1971; EgyptAir Comet4; Tripoli, Libya: The aircraft struck sand dunes four miles (6.4 km) from the runway during approach. All eight crew members and eight passengers were killed.

29 January 1973; EgyptAir Ilyushin 18; near Nicosia, Cyprus: The aircraft crashed into mountian during approach. All seven crew members and 30 passengers were killed.

25 December 1976; EgyptAir 707; Bangkok, Thailand: The aircraft crashed into a textile mill during approach. All nine crew members and 43 passengers were killed. Also killed were 20 people on the ground.

23 November 1985; Egyptair 737-200; Valletta, Malta: The aircraft was hijacked to Malta. After several hours of negotiations, Egyptian troops stormed the aircraft. During the ensuing battle, the hijackers threw several hand grenades. The aircraft was severely damaged by the explosions and fire. Two of the six crew members and 58 of the 90 passengers were killed.

10 June 1986; Air Sinai F27; Cairo, Egypt: Shortly before landing in reduced visibility, the crew reportedly attempted to go around. The crew lost control of the aircraft and crashed near the runway. All five crew members and 18 of the 21 passengers were killed.

31 October 1999; EgyptAir 767-300ER; Atlantic Ocean near Nantucket Island, MA: Radar and radio contact with the aircraft was lost shortly after the aircraft departed JFK Airport in New York on a flight to Cairo. The aircraft crashed into the ocean about 60 miles (96 km) south of Nantucket Island. The NTSB determined that the aircraft departed from controlled flight and crashed into the Atlantic Ocean as a result of flight control inputs by the first officer. All 14 crew members and 203 passengers were killed.

7 May 2002; EgyptAir 737-500; near Tunis, Tunisia: The aircraft crashed about 6 km (3.8 mi) from the airport after a flight from Cairo. The aircraft was reportedly making a second approach for landing when it crashed into high ground during a period of reduced visibility due to fog and sandstorms. Early reports indicate that seven of the eight crew members and at 11 of the 55 passengers were killed.

There is one more accident that belongs to Air Sinai which will be excluded in this analysis (even though Air Sinai is owned by Egypt Air). Also, there is an accident that resulted from hijacking and also will be discounted. That leaves 4 accidents since 1970.

Let us examine the airplanes themselves, they are 737-500, 767-300, Comet 4, and Illushyin 18. Let us take the planes one by one, starting with one accident that didn’t generate a lot of controversy; that is the B737 Egypt Air accident in Tunisia.

Egypt Air has a total of 0.75MM flights. The number of them on 737 is unknown but 737 is a popular model and it may represent the vast majority of the flights. To give Egypt Air all the benefit of the doubt, let us assume it represents 90% of the flights = 0.675 MM. Egypt Air had 1 accident on 0.675 MM flights representing an accident rate of 1.48 accidents per million flights.

However, Boeing 737 is used by a wide variety of airlines across the world. After all, it is the most popular airplane in the world. Of all the B737 users (whether good or bad operators), B737 had only 0.62 accident rate, or < ½ of the Egyptair accident rate. What is the probability that on the 0.675 MM flights that Egypt Air had of the 104.96 MM flight the world had on the B737 (with 0.62 accident rate) that Egypt Air will have 1 accident?

Historgram of World Aircrafts. With accidents rates of 0.62 per million flights, the Boeing 737 has one of the best safety records in the world.

That is an easier question to ask and we can answer that question as follows: Accidents happen usually following a Poisson distribution which Poisson discovered working for Napoleon to estimate the probability of a soldier being kicked by a horse! Assuming that accidents on a B737 follow the Poisson distribution with an accident rate = 0.62, what is the probability that over 0.675 MM flights, there will be less than 1 accident? That probability calculated according to the Poisson distribution ends up being 88-90%. What does that mean? That means that for all the universe of airlines using the Boeing 737 (out of which some are bad airlines and some are good airlines), approximately 90% of them will perform better than Egypt Air and have less than 1 accident given the same number of flights as Egypt Air had on the Boeing 737. If we realize that we inflated the number of flights that Egypt Air had on B737, it shows that if Egypt Air was an average operator of the B737, its probability of having an accident on its B737 fleet should be only 10-12%.

Can we do the same analysis for the Boeing 767 famous Egypt Air 990 accident?
Most likely not because we will need accurate usage number for Egypt Air of its B767 fleet (until Egypt Air decided not to use B767 again, which is honestly not a bad decision given that the B777 is more fuel efficient). But, we can make another conservative assumption similar to the one we made above? The Boeing 767 has an accident rate of 0.46. This is better than the B737 but actually typically the B767 is not as popular as the B737 and doesn’t have as many flights. It is also a more complex plane for long haul flights. Therefore, it is either operated only by larger airlines which may tend to be better users, or simply it didn’t have a lot of opportunities yet to fail…this is hard to tell.

But, let us assume conservatively again that the 1 accident that Egypt Air had on its B767 fleet occurred on the maximum possible number of flights that is comparable to the B737 and is equal to 0.675MM. This is a wildly conservative assumption but again we will make it to give Egypt Air all the possible benefit of the statistics. This translates to an accident rate of 1.48. The probability that an airline will have fewer accidents than Egypt Air is now 93%. This means that Egypt Air has to get the luck of 7% of the population to end up having the Egypt Air 990 accident.

Can Egypt Air Be Just Unlucky?


Things are not improving for Egypt Air so far. On average it is at the bottom 10% of all airlines. We thought initially that could be because it operates exceptionally bad planes. Therefore, we tried to look at specific accidents on Egypt air specific jets, which happened to be very popular by many airlines. In both cases (B737 and B767), Egypt Air had more accidents than 90% of the airlines operating those specific airplanes. It cannot be that Egypt Air is operating specifically bad airplanes. It has to be that Egypt Air is not a good operator and is truly at the bottom 10% of all operators.


But wait a second, it could be that Egypt Air just got unlucky on both the Boeing 767 and the Boeing 737 and got exceptionally bad planes in both cases. It could be that the model itself is good but the specific equipment was bad. It so happened that we can calculate the probability of that as well. Let us assume that all 3 B767 and all 57 B737 (number of accidents on both planes worldwide) were bad planes…had some form of malfunctioning and were not the operator problem but rather a Boeing problem. This is again a very conservative assumption, but one we will go along with for now to avoid distributing any blame on the airlines. There are 6000 B737 around the world, and there are more than 1000 B767 operating worldwide. If we assume all failures were related to Boeing. That means 57/6000 and 3/1000 bad airplanes. That is a failure rate of 0.95% and 0.3% respectively. This is for sure a low failure rate and corresponds to what is known in the industry as a 3 sigma process, so it is not necessarily a bad assumption that it is all Boeing’s fault, after all 3-sigma is not a bad industrial process. So, it is plausible that all B737 and B767 accidents were a manufacturer problem.

However, bak to Egypt Air. Egypt Air has to be so unlucky that when it took delivery of the B767, it took a bad plane and also when it took delivery of the B737 it still took a bad plane. The combined probability that Egypt Air took deliveries of bad planes in both cases is 0.3/100*0.95/100 = 28 per million. This cannot easily be accepted to be just lack of luck.

This probability is not zero, but it is very small. Egypt Air must be either incompetent with a probability of 90% or unlucky with a probability of 28 per million. I am trained in statistics and cannot reject the unlucky hypothesis. Someone may come years later and prove that Egypt Air was really unlucky and got bad deliveries in both cases. However, I am inclined to say for now it is just incompetence.


Now, it could be the Egypt Air 990 itself was not the result of incompetence and is truly something else: terrorism, deliberate act by the CIA or the Mossad to kill Egyptian officers onboard, suicidal tendancies of the pilot, ...whatever your flavor of the conspiracy theory is. I have no idea what exactly the true cause of Egypt Air 990 is. However what I am sure about now, is that Egypt Air is incompetent. Unfortunately, this is a fact that did not escape the US trial lawyers who used every bit of statistics to get Egypt Air to pay a hefty compensation package to the dead and injured. If Egypt Air had a better safety record, it could have been more difficult for those trial lawyers to extract the millions they did extract from the Egyptian treasury (finally all settlements were paid for by the Egyptian insurance company Misr Insurace which is owned by the Egyptian government, i.e., the Egyptian people paid for the neglect and incompetence).

It Is Not Only Egypt Air


The sad reality is that it is not only Egypt Air. The culture of neglect is so wide-spread in Egypt now that there is no respcet for rules, whether these rules are safety ones, engineering, or even the basic rule of law. Culture in Egypt is incredibly permissive of mistakes and errors. It doesn't take a genius to see all the train and road accidents that are becoming daily news in Egypt are really caused by a severe neglect of rules. There is also a complete lack of accountability and responsibility in many disciplines in the Egyptian society. I am sorry to shock you with this conclusion…however, as painful as it is, it still is reality, at least based on the scientific evidence.



Egypt Train Accidents Are Among the Highest in the World. After a series of them, President Mubarak told news reporters that the "accidents are because the train sector has been neglected for a long time and didn't receive proper investment levels. This is something that the government is working on now." Shortly after, the Egyptian minister of transportation declared in Al-Ahram that "investments are being directed now and that new locomotives are being bought and problem should be solved within 6 months." The minister also spoke of train electrification as the potential solution to the problem. This is the most wishful thinking in the world. Reasons are: (1) I cannot understand how new locomotives will avoid the head-on collisions that caused the recent series of accidents. (2) I checked with friends who manage sales and orders of Diesel locomotives in the American company that supplies most of Egypt's new locomotives. The shortest time to get a new locomotive is 1 year assuming all terms and conditions are agreed on. I don't understand how the minister will get his new locomotives! The saga continues and we should be waiting for another sad round of accidents!




I will not talk about road accidents and how disrespect for the rule of law is so widely spread on Egyptian streets (top and center pictures of road accidents in Egypt). Egyptian driving gets funny at least. I remember sitting next to a taxi driver who insisted that I put on the safety belt which was just a piece of cloth that didn't even buckle and lacked the safety coil so its only purpose would be to strangle me in case of an accident. The story didn't end there. The taxi driver broke almost every traffic rule I can remember including a red light, a stop sign, and a one-way street! I will not talk about that because it is becoming part of the Egyptian culture to have a street that more or less resembles a circus. But let me talk about something of far worse consequences: the oil industry. Egypt has a bad record of safety in an industry that is obssessed with safety. Picture above shows fire and explosion on an offshore platform off the Egyptian coast.
Egyptian Cruiser Al-Salam. Number of fatalities on Egyptian cruisers is more than those who died in the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war! The captain of Al-Salam violated, upon instructions from ship's owner, international safety rules and proceeded with the planned trip despite clear adverse conditions. The cruise ship stories smelled high-level corruption all over them (the most recent ship disaster is owned by a billionaire who is connected to Zakria Azmi -- a chief advisor to president Mubarak and a major power broker in Egypt).
Ignoring the law is becoming a disease. On 4 Oct 2006, Reuters carried the following headline: RENNES, France, Oct 4 (Reuters) - A French court fined an Egyptian captain and his employer 500,000 euros ($634,400), a French record, on Wednesday for flushing out a cargo ship's tanks at sea and creating an oil slick. "The amount of the fine reflects the infraction and also the deplorable and ill-maintained state of the vessel," state prosecutor Xavier Tarabeux told Reuters.

Another Example of Egyptian "Fahlawah" which is connected to the culture of neglect and disrespect for rule of law: 11 Egyptian exchange students destined for English courses in Minnesota ended up with friends and families in New York for several weeks apparently seeking to find jobs. Not knowing of course that the US has tightened its control of foreign students attendance in its uinversities and of course being Egyptians have triggered all kinds of security alarms at the FBI. The result is a big embarassment, dashed hopes, and a denied visa for lots of law-respecting Egyptians.


The Solution: More Singing!


Let me take a little digression here. In the good old early days of Mubarak's presidency while hopes were high, there was a short song on Egyptian TV criticizing the culture of neglect. The song was named: "Maalish" (which translates to "It's OK") and the lyrics said: "For people who want to advance, they have to destroy Maalish." The song didn't last for long and obviously failed to achieve any of its objectives. The song was not bad, but it was a grim reminder that when you resort to songs, you really don't have anything else to offer. Unfortunately, things got worse because at least at that time we were willing to confront the difficult social and cultural problems. Now, we are just blaming the "chronic under-investment" in the transportation sector. Even if that is the case, mind you -- I beg your pardon, who is making these decisions? It is not the poor people whose fate led them to ride a 3rd class (terso as Egyptians say) Egyptian train?


Back to Reality: What Is Egypt Air Missing


Aside from the chronic culture of neglect in Egypt which the Egyptian government is unwilling to confornt its people with, there are things that could be done, particularly focusing on Egypt Air. The Egyptian government always accuses its critics that they don't offer solutions (as if the government does). Here are the elements of how Egypt Air at least could emerge:
1- Egypt Air should focus on the business of operating an airline. Operating a hospital as Egypt Air does has no synergy to operating an airline.
2- Egypt Air needs to establish regional and world partnerships. Did Egypt Air hear about code sharing? or joint-venturing? Instead of competing in limited markets, world airlines now code share (meaning the fly the same aircraft under the name of two or more airlines) so as to cut costs and improve profits.
3- Egypt Air needs to develop a regional alliance. A small fish like Egypt Air cannot negotiate opening up the US skies to more Egyptian flights. However, a regional alliance has multiple airports landings to offer to US airlines and can therefore gain access to more American cities.
4- Egypt Air should quickly bring its service to world standards. I feel sad when I see companies such as Aeroflot (the old quirky Russian airlines) now participating in global alliances such as the Sky Team alliance while no Arab airline is there. Egypt Air should take the lead on that. Leadership is not by history but is about present and future. Alliances like that give access to markets and publicity exposure, both are dearly needed by Egypt Air. However, these alliances won't let you in unless you meet certain standards. Egypt Air needs to move quickly in that direction.
5- Cairo Airport needs to privatized. I don't understand the logic behind privatizing railroads which are used by the vast majority of poor Egyptians and not even thinking about Cairo Airport used frequently by the elite who can afford air travel.
6- Egypt Air needs to look at its schedule and pricing. Egypt has a significant advantage because Cairo airport operates all night when all European airports don't. A flight heading to Africa or Asia can originate in Europe late at night, stop in Cairo at dawn, to continue trip early morning. Air travellers now book based mostly on price and availability of flights to suit their intended departure time. If you are smart about pricing and schedule, you can win big.


Alliances such as SkyTeam include the the likes of Dutch KLM, French Air France, American Delta, Mexican AeroMexico, and Russian Aeroflot! All in one partnership! When I fly on SkyTeam, I go from a Delta flight in the US to an Alitalia flight to cross the Atlantic, to an Air France one to land in Paris, and finally to a Korean flight going to Seoul...and it all feels like I am on the same airline. These alliances open their respective markets to each other and offer significant joint venture advantages. These alliances are constant reminders to me how Eastern Europeans have made strides in the past 20 years while we stoodstill. There is a famous joke about Egyptian presidents and their car drivers: Upon assuming presidency, Mubarak asked his driver about his two predecesors and how they instructed him to drive from home to office.Nasser always asked to give left signal and only turn left. Sadat instructed to give left signal and then turn right. The driver said, so what do you want to do Mr. President. Mubarak asked his driver to give a right signal, then a left signal, then park in the same place.

Final word, true leaders lead cultural change to the better. Failed leaders either sit idle or change the culture to the worse. I cannot say that President Mubarak created a culture of neglect. I can say though that he sat idle. His son can give us all the long lectures he wants about the fruits of free economy. I do believe in every word Mr. Gamal says and I don't sleep during his lecture as a European ambassador did recently, but without confronting Egypt's cultural issues, to me, they are not true leaders.

Monday, September 04, 2006

Touching the Big Bang

In physical cosmology, the Big Bang is the scientific theory of how the universe emerged from a tremendously dense and hot state about 13.7 billion years ago. The theory is based on the observed expanding of space. None of us has seen the big bang, but by observing signals left by the distant planets, scientists can make predictions about the big bang. There are times when you feel you have touched the big bang. I had that experience recently.

According to the Big Bang theory, the universe emerged from an extremely dense and hot state (bottom). Since then, space itself has expanded with the passage of time, carrying the galaxies with it.

The big bang for the Arab and most of the Muslim world is when the Ottoman Empire collapsed at the end of World War I and when most modern Arab countries and Turkey were created. For us, this is the big bang. All of a sudden and with no design on my part, I had the big bang knocking on my office. This article is the narration of that experience. Before I get to my big bang encounter, I need to give first a background on what was happening in the world at the time of the big bang.


Background on the Years of the Big Bang

The year is 1919, Egypt is under British occupation and the 1st World War has just ended with the allies led by Britain emerging victorious. Air in the world was filled with hopes for peace. After a devastating world war in which tens of millions lost their lives and many more were brutally injured, disposed, or dislocated, peoples of the world thought that the end of the war will finally bring peace. The dominant slogan was: “A war to end all wars.” The peace hopes were raised when the president of the United States (Woodrow Wilson) announced his fourteen points. The Fourteen Points were listed in a speech delivered by President Woodrow Wilson to a joint session of the United States Congress on January 8, 1918. In his speech, Wilson set out a blueprint for a just and lasting peace in Europe after World War I. The idealism displayed in the speech gave Wilson a position of moral leadership among the Allies, encouraged the Central Powers to surrender, and most importantly it gave hope to many people around the world.

There was specifically one point of the fourteen that mattered to Egypt the most:
"XII. Ottoman Empire
Sovereignty for the Turkish portion of the Ottoman Empire, autonomous development for other nationalities, and free navigation of the Dardanelles. "

Egypt at that time was legally still part of the Ottoman Empire. This was part of the ambiguous relation between Britain and Egypt that Britain strived to maintain. Unlike India, Egypt was never an official part of the British Empire. Britain always recognized the nominal sovereignty of the Ottomans over Egypt while firmly held the true power in their hands. The ambiguity was a strong tool in pre-war British foreign policy that is designed to dissuade her other European rivals from meddling in the Middle East. The official posture was simply that Britain is in Egypt upon the request of the Ottoman Sultan and his representative in Egypt (which is a true and sad part of Egypt’s occupation in 1882). As such, no other European country has the right either to ask for more access to Egypt or to ask for improved position in other parts of the world to let Britain have freedom in Egypt. Had Britain annexed Egypt into the British Empire, this would have given its world rivals a carte blanche to conquer other parts of the Middle East. Before the war, Britain was most concerned that France, who has designs over Palestine and the Levant, would in turn meet the British move with one of its own in Palestine therefore threatening the wings of the Suez Canal and the lifeline to India. This was consistent with British long-held policy of postponing the dismantling of the Ottoman Empire as much as possible.

Ottoman soldiers surrendering in November 1918 marking the official collapse of the Empire. Finally, Britain is confronted with what she has been trying to avoid for decades.
With the end of the War, Britain was faced with the real challenge of dismantling of the Ottoman Empire and therefore embarked on a policy that is designed to maximize its territorial and power gains in the Middle East. At any cost, Britain wanted to isolate Egypt from all regional developments by arguing that Egypt was not really part of the Ottoman Empire therefore what applied to the rest of the Ottoman Empire didn’t apply to Egypt. This was a daring shift in policy since few years earlier; the British policy was quite the opposite. The Brits hated the American meddling in the Middle East and thought it to be counter-productive – of course to British goals. For example, when the Americans proposed to form a commission to investigate the circumstances and conditions existing in certain parts of the former Ottoman Empire, in order to inform American policy with regard to the future of the region, Britain showed no enthusiasm for the commission and withdrew from its formation and left it only to the two American members King and Crane.

The commission was originally proposed by the United States as an international effort to determine if the region was ready for self-determination and to see what nations, if any, the locals wanted to act as mandatory powers. The plan received little support from the other nations, with many claimed delays. The Americans gradually came to realize that the British and French had already come to their own backroom deals about the future of the region, and new information could only serve to muddy the waters in their view. So, the commission was sent out sponsored by the United States alone. President Wilson picked Henry Churchill King, a theologian and fellow college president (of Oberlin College), and Charles R. Crane, a prominent Democratic party contributor, to lead the commission.

The commission's effectiveness was hampered by the fact that it was the British army that actually protected them and controlled the translators, giving a skewed view of opinion where it was considerably easier to decry the French than the British. In spite of this, based on interviews with local elites, the commission came to the conclusion that while independence was preferred, the Americans were considered the second-best choice for a colonial power, the British the third-best, and the French easily the worst possible choice. Even superpowers like Britain at the time, act based on inertia – therefore the Brits saw France as their major enemy and not anybody else for the moment. Although the Brits hated American meddling they feared French ambitions the most. The Brits thought that America is the future enemy while the French are the current problem that they have to deal with.

Telgram sent by President Wilson in March 1919 to the Dean of College where Dr. King Used to Work. The tone of the telegram indicate that Wilson wanted Dr. King to travel immediately. Wilson was wary of British intentions in the Middle East and wanted to quickly side-step the Brits and the French and check their imperial ambitions in the important region.


Based on these interviews, King came to the conclusion that while the Middle East was "not ready" for independence, a colonial government would not serve the people well either. He recommended instead that the Americans move in to occupy the region, because only the United States could be trusted to guide the people to self-sufficiency and independence rather than become an imperialist occupier. King's overriding concern was the morally correct course of action, not necessarily tempered by politics or pragmatism. The Republicans had regained control of the United States Senate in 1918, and as isolationists, the probability of a huge military adventure and occupation overseas, even given British and French approval, was practically nil.

The point ended up being moot in any case, as Lloyd George and Georges Clemenceau, heads of states of Great Britain and France, prevailed at the Treaty of Versailles. France received Syria and Britain would get Mesopotamia (Iraq and Palestine), contrary to the expressed wishes of both the interviewees and the Commission itself. In the United States, the report floundered with Wilson's sickness and later death. Publication was intended to be suppressed until the Senate actually passed the Treaty of Versailles, which it never did; as a result, the report was only released to the public in 1922.

Therefore, while the world was filled with peace songs, the imperial reality of British ambitions were hidden but in full swing.

Mismatch between History Textbooks and Reality

The emerging Egyptian elite on the other hand took the fourteen points as a promise and even as a legally binding document. Like many others, the fourteen points and the prospect of self-determination led the Egyptians to develop their own aspiration for independence from Britain. The movement was led by Saad Pasha Zaghloul who formed a Wafd (or delegation) that was supposed to be party to the peace negotiations in Versailles. The rest of the history is known because the British refused to grant the party right to go to Versailles (consistent with post-war British policy discussed above that wanted to isolate Egypt from the rest of the region and from the world around it). Riots erupted in what was known as the 1919 revolution. On March 9, 1919, what many Egyptians called the first revolution broke out in Egypt. Protest demonstrations erupted in Cairo and quickly spread throughout the country. The official story is that Egyptians were infuriated at the British expulsion of Wafd (delegate) Party nationalist leader Saad Zaghlul and three others who had been exiled to Malta. The toll after three weeks of rioting was 800 Egyptians killed. The British finally backed down and Saad was freed on April 7. On April 11, the Wafd delegation finally reached Paris and presented its case for independence at the Versailles Peace Conference. They were bitterly disappointed by the United States which ended up backing the British Protectorate over Egypt.

This is what appears on the surface. But, like an iceberg, reality was much bigger and vastly more complex below the surface. In revolutions and major upheavals what occurs below the surface is much more important than movement on the surface itself. In this article, I will make the case for the following 3 claims:
1- The Egyptian revolt in 1919 was not strictly anti-British but was in fact much broadly directed against all forms of oppression or inequality in the country (and Egypt was not short of those).
2- Beneath the surface, the 1919 revolution had both Pan-Islam and nationalistic motivation not only nationalistic as was later claimed. The Pan-Islamic character was taken off the Egyptian national agenda because of earlier developments in Cairo itself rather than representing the sentiments of Egyptians at large.

Saad Pasha Zaghloul. The leader who became the symbol of the 1919 revolution. Saad Pasha inspired many Egyptians and even today his memory brings images of patriotism. However, as we will see later, Saad Pasha almost instituted a problem that will become dominant in all Arab politics. I may venture into calling this problem: "the single leader syndrome." Saad Pasha was unable to confront his supporters with the bitter reality that Egypt lacked the power or the technology to confront the British Empire and any settlement with Britain will involve concessions. This inability to confront his supporters led to lost opportunities and to a syndrome that reached all the way to Yasser Arafat as we will find out later.


3- Finally, I will argue that the average Egyptian had broader political goals from the 1919 revolution than that of the Egyptian political elite in Cairo including Saad Pasha himself. The mismatch between the political goal of the masses in Egypt and the political elite in Cairo and the unclear ending of the revolution, made Egypt pregnant with revolutionary symptoms at least until 1952 (which is another long story) and beyond in some respect.

I always held some suspicion that the above 3 points were true but I had no documents to substantiate my claims. Finally, a friend walked into my office with a trophy. He knocked on my door with the opportunity to touch the big bang. His father in law was a Greek who worked in Egypt during the 1919 revolution and had written his revolution memoirs. He had a copy of the memoirs and wanted me to help putting a geographical context to the document. I gladly helped not knowing that I found a real trophy that will uncover the mystery of the 1919 revolution. In this article, I will use the memoirs with minimal possible commentary from my side. I will comment when it is necessary to connect the events in the hope to make a thread that leads to uncovering the true nature of the 1919 Egyptian revolt. Let us start feeling the big bang.
Background of the Memoir Author

The memoirs are titled “The Revolution in Egypt and Angelis Angelakis' terrible day of March 21, 1919.” Angelis Angelakis who was at the time 31 years old and the manager on the land of two bank establishments wrote the memoirs. First was the company of Mr. T. Kalothis, leaser of the land from Anglo Coal company with 300 feddans (Egyptian measurement unit of land area equal to 4,200 sq.m.) in three parcels each at a distance of about 3 hours from the others (i.e. 12miles/20km). Second is that of J. Krieg et Cie ........... with 300 feddans in the province of Sharkiya Markis Faqus and village of Munajah Kubra where Angelis was during that time.

[
My comments:
Note the large parcels of lands owned by foreign entities in the heartland of Egypt. Note also that not only were the lands owned by foreign companies but also were leased by foreigners and all those who managed the land were also foreigners. The whole economic cycle was in the hands of non-Egyptians.

The more disturbing part is that the bounty of this economic cycle was not re-invested in Egypt. To the contrary, the money was collected and re-invested outside Egypt. Even charities were spent outside Egypt. The story of George Averof is a case in point.

George M. Averoff (1815-1899), alternately Georgios Averof (In Greek: Γεώργιος Αβέρωφ), was a Greek businessman and philanthropist. Born in Metsovo, Averoff moved to Alexandria while still young. He was known through most of his life for founding numerous Greek schools both in Egypt and Greece. Most importantly, Averof financed the restoration of the Panathinaiko Stadium for the 1896 Summer Olympics at the request of Crown Prince Constantine. The stadium was rebuilt in 1895 using white marble from Mount Penteli pursuant to Averoff's request. The cost was initially estimated at 580,000 drachmas but eventually reached 920,000. He also served as a member of the reception committee for the foreign competitors at the Games. In gratitude for his contributions, a statue of Averoff was commissioned and placed in front of the stadium. It remains there today. In addition, a Greek cruiser, the flagship of the Hellenic Navy, was named after him.

A little known fact is that it was Egyptian money that built the modern Olympics. Athens Olympic Stadium (shown above) was built by donations from G. Averoff, a Greek businessman who made his money in Egypt. The stadium was built in 1896 for the first modern Olympics. The same stadium was used (after a major and costly renovation) during the 2004 Athens Summer Olympics.

It was not only the Olympics that benefited from Egyptian money. Even the British authorities who were supposed to be “entrusted” with Egypt sent Egypt’s money abroad. In his book: “Colonizing Egypt”, Timothy Mitchell (Professor of History at New York University) uncovered a unknown fact in regional politics. We all remember T. E. Lawrence (known as Lawrence of Arabia) and the creation of the Arab revolt against the Turks. Even till today, elders of the Arab tribes in the Hejaz remember Lawrence as the British officer who brought the gold. Lawrence brought camels loaded with gold to give it to Arab tribes to encourage the revolt that became to be known as the Arab revolution. Through his work, Timothy Mitchell showed that this very gold was taken from the Egyptian treasury – supposedly on loan to subsidize the war effort. The expedition of General Allenby that ended up expelling the Turks from the Levant was also funded with Egyptian gold. At the time, British treasury in London itself was stretched very thinly by what was known as the Western front (the fight in Northern France between the allies and Germany – which was a very expensive and futile trenches warfare) to the extent that the British authorities in Egypt (the Arab bureau) had to find its own resources to fund its own expeditions. Egyptian money again was utilized to fund British imperial goals in the Middle East.

Mohammad Ouda Abu-Tayie, the son of Ouda Abu-Tayie, the chief of the tribe that helped Lawrence capture the Aqabah port and led to what appeared to be the victory of the Arab revolution over the Turkish oppression. In this photo taken in 1930, it is clear that Mohammad was doing well. Egyptian gold bankrolled the Arab revolution, Sherif Hussein, and the whole nine yards.
An unlikely recipient of Egyptian largesse. The Hebrew University of Jerusalem received significant donations from Jews living and prospering in Egypt between the two world wars. Between the two world wars, many Jews felt no contradiction between Zionist and Egyptian national commitments. In an open letter to Haim Nahum Effendi, the Chief Rabbi of Egypt, the editor of the Arabic/French pro-Zionist periodical Isra'il/Israël, Albert D. Mosseri, asked the rabbi to, "Please explain to our brothers that one can be an excellent patriot of the country of one's birth while being a perfect Jewish nationalist. One does not exclude the other."Several Egyptian Jews did participate in both national movements. Félix Benzakein was a member of the Wafd, a deputy in parliament, a member of the Alexandria rabbinical court, and president of the Zionist Organization of Alexandria. Despite his Zionist commitments, Benzakein remained in Egypt until 1960, when he emigrated to the United States. His son Meyer (Mike) Benzakein (who was born in Egypt) became the General Manager of Advanced Technology at GE Aircraft Engines and was the brain behind the powerplants powering Boeing 767 and 777. The reason of this article here is not to point fingers or to accuse anybody, it is only purpose is to provide an attempt at accounting for where the Egyptian wealth landed.

Now back to the memoir body text]


On Monday, the 17th day of March I was on the "izba" (Egyptian farm/ estate) Tall Rak keeping busy with supervising the sowing of cotton on Mr. T. Kalothis's estate. The sky was serene and the day was smiling at us as it was advancing, greeting the bounty of the country. Unfortunately this did not last for long. And a strong wind started blowing that forced me to go in my room to rest. There I was visited by fallakhs (Egyptian farmers). They brought me news and told me stories of the revolution and the destruction by the indigenous people on the railroads and stores of Europeans, as well as, the looting of my brother's.

[
My comments:
This needs a little background. It was one thing to utilize Egypt’s bounties and send it abroad as we discussed earlier, yet another thing is to abuse that country. What was happening in Egypt was not only utilization but most certainly abuse.

In 1919, World War I has just ended. During the war, Egyptians suffered tremendously. During the war, prices of cotton increased sharply due to the increased war demand and the disruption of American supplies. The spectacular increase in cotton prices increased Egypt’s wealth significantly. Allenby’s army stationed in Egypt also needed lots of supplies that couldn’t be imported because of the blockade and disruptions in the Mediterranean. The acute rise in demand and the constrained supply led to price increase of all goods in Egypt. Many in Egypt made huge profits from supplying the allied forces. However, this apparent prosperity was hiding beneath it many social ills.




New Zealand troops stationed in Egypt in 1915. During the war, Egypt didn't only serve as a farm and a big logistical camp for the allies, but it even served as a brothel. Stationed in Cairo in 1915 in the weeks before the assault on Gallipoli, about 3000 Australian and New Zealand troops rioted for 3 days through Cairo's red light district (later abolished in the 1940s), burning and trashing houses. The rioting was called the battle of "Wazza." The troops rioted because a considerable number of them had contracted venereal diseases and it was believed they rioted in retribution.


During the war, Egypt was under emergency law. Under the law, the fellahs (farmers), their camels, and donkeys were conscripted to become forced laborers in support of the Allied war effort. Tens of Thousands of Egyptian farmers were forced to dig trenches to defend the Suez Canal at the beginning of war. Moreover, the law allowed the British authorities to confiscate camels and donkeys to be used to transport troops, munitions, and weapons to support the war effort. This explains how astronomical profits were made: essentially the cost of labor was near-zero, while the price of the finished goods was rising.

Most of the new wealth accumulated in the hands of large and medium landowners who owned 75% of all the arable land in Egypt and in the hands of the emerging middle class in Egyptian cities. The rest of Egyptians were suffering from inflation and forced labor. The puppet Egyptian government had no social policy at the time. This led all the landowners to farm cotton only while ignoring all other edible crops leading to famine and a sharp increase in death rates during the war.


This all may have been bearable if the landowners and emerging city middle class developed in a manner similar to European landed and city middle classes in which their increased wealth led to local re-investment in technology and infrastructure. This never happened in Egypt. The British because of their confused relationship in Egypt maintained all the Ottoman laws and jurisprudence. Chief among these laws were what came to be known as “Capitulations” or in Egypt as “Imitazat.”

The Turkish Capitulations were grants made by successive Sultans to Christian nations, conferring rights and privileges in favor of their subjects resident or trading in the Ottoman dominions, following the policy towards European states of the Byzantine Empire. In the first instance capitulations were granted separately to each Christian state, beginning with the Genoese in 1453, which entered into pacific relations with Turkey. Afterwards new capitulations were obtained which summed up in one document earlier concessions, and added to them in general terms whatever had been conceded to one or more other states; a stipulation which became a most favored nation article. Around 1535 a capitulation was made by Suleiman the Magnificent regarding France. However, that was a time when the Ottoman empire was strong and was at equal footing with other foreign powers. The aim of these capitulations was to propagate trade between Turkey and European countries. Over time and during the Ottoman empire decline, these capitulations meant that foreigners residing in the Ottoman empire were subject only to the laws of their countries and generally attained a privileged status within the Ottoman empire.

According to Capitulations, and treaties confirmatory of them, made between the Porte and other states, foreigners resident in Turkey were subject to the laws of their respective countries, i.e., the various non-Muslim peoples were allowed their semi-autonomy in matters affecting their personal status. Weak and declining, the Ottoman Sultans in the beginning of the 20th century couldn’t’ abolish the Capitulations in fear of upsetting the more powerful European countries. What started as a policy aimed at propagating trade, ended up being disastrous for all the subjects of the Ottoman Empire.

For example, a simple financial dispute between an Egyptian and a foreigner residing in Egypt cannot be resolved in an ordinary court. The foreign subject enjoying his special privilege would go to his consul in Egypt to resolve the dispute while the Egyptian government watched helplessly. As expected, all of these disputes were settled overwhelmingly to the advantage of foreigners. An Egyptian employee cannot sue a foreign employer. Even worse, a foreigner could lay claim to a large swath of land, expel the hapless fellahin, and nobody would be able to dispute the act. Foreigners also didn’t pay Egyptian taxes but rather paid taxes in their own countries. The whole system gave a significant advantage to foreigners. This was a time of bonanza. Many Europeans (particularly from the poorer South Europe) immigrated to Egypt in search of wealth. They enjoyed unprecedented quality of life. They truly saw Egypt as paradise on earth.

However, years of oppression led to upheavals in 1919. Let us continue with the story.
]


The wind ever stronger was blowing making my room's window shutters open and shut with great noise - confirming to me the terrible vengeance of the Egyptians. The night passed restlessly, and without sleeping I was thinking how and what to do to escape from this situation.

The clock struck 8:00 am next morning. After considerable thinking I decided to go to the village Tall Rak to stay there with the fellow-Greeks who lived there: D. Krasalis (?), D. Varetas (?), P. Polyzois and I. Archontis - All cotton merchants except for D. Varetas, a grocer.

The beginning of My Terrifying Days

I locked my room and came downstairs to go to the stable to get and ride my donkey.

Suddenly, in front of me appears the fallakh who lived on the izba, Ibrahim Khater by name, with his tall posture and stern look holding a grudge against me for a long time. Now, he may have found the opportunity he needed to break even and he asked me rudely where I was going.

Pretending that I was busy fixing my donkey's harness, and keeping my cool I made him realize that I had not heard anything about the current events. I responded telling him that I'm going to the izba in Munajah. He, apparently, admiring my coolness, stood there and was looking at me as I was leaving. Only God knows what he was thinking.

The heart racing begins. I arrived at the river that flows next to the village Sadat, and I got on the boat in order to cross the river. Suddenly, from the opposite bank I heard a fallakh telling me in an imploring way, because I knew him, "khawaga (sir – to a European man) where are you going?" I answered that I was going to Tall Rak. He responded telling me that if I wanted my life, I should return immediately to my izba nearby. Because in Tall Rak, the villagers have decided today to loot the properties and to kill the nosranis (Christians) that lived there.

[My comment:

The story now is getting clearer. This was not a rise against the British occupation in Egypt. This was a rise against all foreigners living in Egypt. Putting it in the perspective of Capitulations and the predominate famines in Egypt at the time, this was a rise against oppression.

The Revolution peak in March 1919. A rare photo taken in a Cairo street.


Even though the term used to refer to the enemy is “nosranis” or Christians, we shouldn’t be confused about the intents and goals. Back in Cairo, the slogans used in Cairo streets were “long time Crescent and Cross.” Egyptian Christians participated en masse in the 1919 revolution. Naturally though, Egyptian villagers identified foreigners as Christians and were referring to them as such.

]

I was on the boat, in the middle of the river when I heard the startling news for Tall Rak and I was wondering what to do. Should I return to my izba? Somehow I knew that I would find a more terrible death from my own fallakhs.

I decided to move forward - going where? Even I did not know...

As I was passing by the village Sadat, the fallakhs there whom I was acquainted with, asked me: "Where are you going yia khawaga? Il nasara mat koulou (all the Christians are dead)."

Without responding, I was letting my donkey leading the way to Tall Rak, through the fields of Rizgale Bey Setti.

In the middle of the road I met the wives of my ex-foreman, who knew me and liked me; and they were pleading with me to go back because there is a revolution going on in Tall Rak.

Placing my fate in the hands of God, I was letting my donkey continue to lead the way.

I had not moved far from the women and I heard from a distance of about 100 meters insults directed to me from fallakhs who were plowing the land. And I saw others running toward me with the intention to beat me up with the rihoe (??) and their hands.

The intervention of the women saved me. And always following my donkey, I approached the village Tall Rak.

[
My comments:
Despite all the oppression we talked about before, those simple villagers were able to save our Greek friend because of what appears to be long acquaintance with him.

I compare that for example to the 1990s Bosnian war in which next-door neighbors killed each other in cold blood.

It is possible that our Greek friend here was a real nice man (and knowing his family personally, I can testify to that) which may have eventually saved him.
]


There, unexpectedly, I became the subject of new insults and stone throwing from children and women. I tapped my donkey to get away from the village, and I took the road to the Bazaar, which happens to be located about 300 meters away from the village.


[My comments:
The use of stones appears to be a stable in the Middle East as a tool to fight oppression. 70 years later, Palestinians in Gaza used the same tool to fight the Israelis. We will discuss that later, but it is interesting to note that the1991 Palestinian intifida ended in the same politically unclear manner as its 1919 Egyptian older sister. Saad Pasha was unable to deliver a clear negotiated settlement with the Brits in the same way that Arafat 70 years later was unable to deliver a clear settlement with the Israelis. In both cases, the unclear ending led to revolutionary pregnancy – which is still ongoing in Palestine but has ended in Egypt in 1952.

Stones are abundant across the Middle East and is typically the weapon of choice for the poor and the oppressed -- from Egyptians in 1919 to Gazans in 1991.

]

When I got to the Bazaar, totally empty on that day as you would expect, I calmed down a bit when from a distance I saw Vareta's store open and villagers and soldiers seated outside.

I decided to go from the side where the Police was. Going by the Krasalis residence, I saw it closed, and worrying all along not to get attacked, I reached the store.

The first thing I did was to take a glance inside the store to ensure that Varetas was alive. I spotted him. I tied my donkey and proceeded to enter the store. There I saw Varetas frozen, and fallakhs moving about inside and outside the store waiting for the right moment to jump us and to start looting the store.

I asked Varetas "what's going on?" And he replied: "You can see for yourself".

I asked, "how is P. Polyzois?" and his employee responded that he had left early this morning.

A short while later, I see the Policeman of the local station get in a carriage and departing for Kamir Saghir. In an exchange with Varetas, I asked: "what's going to happen to us?" And he replied:" I cannot close the store right now. If you stay here, we'll both die. So, why don't you leave so that at least you can save yourself? And don't take the donkey with you; but leave secretly on foot".

I replied: "if they see me leaving on foot, they'll get the impression that we are afraid, and this may accelerate what they want to do."

While we were mulling over these things, we saw the son of the ex-mayor entering the store enraged and insulting us with the following words: "il nabara dol fatelil lisa le?" (perhaps: these scumbags, why are they still here?) And out of the blue, he grabbed us from the throats expecting us to resist so that he could start the tragedy.

[My comments:
Even the mayor’s son is participating in the revolt. Knowing the family ties in Egypt, this couldn’t happen without the mayor’s permission. This means that the revolt was not random but rather an organized event. Later we will see more signs of nascent organization.

Saad Pasha was known for his organizational skills. Serving in several ministerial capacities, it is possible that Saad Pasha has organized the efforts himself at least at the top level.

]


But we, not only did not resist but, through placating and appeasing words we managed to get away from his hands and to calm them down.

Glancing at Varetas, he communicates to me that: "we are finished...."

A few moments went by and we were sitting without talking. Finally, keeping my cool, I bade farewell and told Varetas that I'm leaving for Suneyta because there is no other safer direction to take. He responded: "God be with us.".

To avoid the detection of the enraged fallakhs, I entered the room inside the store and from there through the back door I walked toward's Polyzois' office where in advance I had notified his employee to bring my donkey.

I rode the donkey, and through the middle of the village, away from the enraged mob, I left .......

On the way, I encountered only a few insults and threats and arrived at the Triantafyllos izba. The reason is that these places I went through are deserted and uninhabited by people.

I asked the first fallakh I met whether the nazir (manager/supervisor of the izba) was there; he responded: tafash! (He disappeared) – he left this morning.

It is 4:00 p.m. I spent two hours in the desert, and I was then learning that the nazir of the izba was not there.

I was walking wondering where to spend the night. I approached the izba and I saw the Egyptians, children and adults, having a celebration. I decided to go to the Matsaglis (?) izba, which is half an hour distance in the desert wondering if he too was there...if not....

[My comment:
Note all these Greek-named Izbas. This was an almost complete colonization of Egypt. Lord Cromer wrote that Greeks, Maltese, Armenians, and Italians were like the Brahmans Hindus in India – meaning that they enjoy privileged caste status. Cromer wrote that Egyptians were a naturally submissive race and that Egypt, as a country, cannot be easily classified. He further wrote that in the eventuality of Egypt gaining self-determination, Egypt’s Brahmans Hindus (Greeks, Maltese, Armenians, and Italians) must have government representation that is disproportionate to their actual numbers because they control all aspects of economical life in the country.

Map showing Mr. Angelios trek in Egypt. The sad part is that we couldn't find an Egyptian map that showed village details in Egypt. We had to rely on an American website that helps pilots navigate across the world. The website had names of most Egyptian villages. So much for the tech-savvy government.


]


I arrived at the izba and asked its employee if the nazir was there. He responded that he had just ridden away going to the Konstantinidis izba; and that "tonight they'll sleep here because they've asked me to cook dinner for them." I dismounted, took the donkey to the stable and asked the cook to make me a coffee.

I was waiting quite some time and no one was showing up. The veil of darkness was about to cover the daylight and I began worrying about them. And dismissing what the fallakh had told me, I rode the donkey and took the direction toward the Konstantinidis izba to see for myself.

I had not gone far away from the izba when I saw them coming. I relaxed and stopped waiting for them, when I realized that there was a third rider and recognized him to be the Lehonitis' nazir.

We approached each other and I greeted them. From the expression of their eyes I knew that they were happy to see me and surprised how I got there. Concerned, they asked me about the events, how I made it here and where I was coming from.

As we were returning to the izba, the four of us together, I told them what happened in Tall Rak. They too told me the news from Faqus - because a man came from there and brought to them a letter. Finally, we ate and prepared our weapons for any attack during the night. We spent the night well, thinking about the following day.

March 19, 1919

The daylight came on the 19th of the month. After a very long meeting, the others decided to take the road to Faqus. I decided to go to the izba of Munajah, which is about 4 hours away (i.e. 16miles/25km) on a desert road away from big cities. The hope was that this road would be quieter than others through cities. The only worry I had was about the hardship of the road ahead of me. I made the sign of the cross. I bade farewell to my friends, and alone set out with my donkey as the only companion.

I had not gone more than half an hour from the Matsaglis izba when I reached and was going by the Suneyta Gezira inhabited only by a few Bedouins. There I saw coming out of their tents and approaching me the Bedouins, one after the other. Within five minutes more than ten gathered around me. I greeted them, always amicably, pretending that I know nothing of the events.

They, surprised with my behavior, asked me where I was going and I told them that I'm the nazir of the Krieg izba in the Munajah region and that I'm heading there.

They asked me: "aren't you afraid?" and I told them:" Why should I be afraid; don't I come through this road often enough?"

With my answers, they were convinced that I knew nothing of the events and they proceeded to tell me one thousand rumors about the feats. "And now, there is agreement in our region for the Egyptians to go to the izbas of the khawagas (europeans) to take what they have and to kill the nazirs". That on the Gezira of Saoud a war was being waged against the British; and many more stories.

Being in a difficult spot, I asked them: "and now, what do you want from me?"

One of them responded and said "you had better stay here with us until things quiet down. And even if you want to return I won't let you, because here you are in good hands and nothing bad will happen to you."

Reflecting upon my situation, I knew that I was stuck. I had a pack of cigarettes and I lit one for me, while distributing the rest to them who were around me in a circle. I decided to plead with them to have one of them accompany me on the way to my izba.

I had told them in advance that I had no money on me; and that I would compensate my companion to the izba only after we got there. One of them agreed and told me that he wants me to pay him one Egyptian pound and an ardeb (Egyptian unit of measuring dry goods = 198 liters) of corn. I agreed with him, and we rode off together.

[My comments:
Many of these Izbas in Egypt are still named after Arab-Bedouin name. Bedouins immigrated from the Arabian peninsula and arrived in the Eastern part of Egypt settling on the periphery of the Nile Delta. At one point, these Bedouins were the ruling class in Egypt causing many to convert to Islam. However, with the power shift in Islamic empire, the Mamluks, Persians, and Turks became the dominant ruling elite across the Muslim empire including in Egypt itself. Many of those Arab émigrés settled and became part of the Egyptian society itself. However, many still did not or took a long time to do so. With little emotional or physical ties to the land or to the people of Egypt proper, Bedouins living on the periphery of the Nile Delta played a destabilizing role. For example, some of the Bedouins cooperated with the British invaders in 1882 and led them to the whereabouts of Orabi’s army.

Whether Bedouins or Mamluks or Turks, the presence of a ruling elites in Egypt that had little ties to Egyptians was detrimental to the country’s development. Unlike Europe in which the national bourgeoisie developed and re-invested its wealth locally (Florence and Venice are the leading examples of the ruling elites investing its wealth in technology, arts, and science leading to the European renaissance), Egyptian elites had no ties to the local environment and either invested its wealth abroad or sequestered that wealth in unrewarding endeavors. We talked about Egyptian Greek investment of its wealth in Greece itself. The golden-plated dome of the rock was built from Egyptian taxes over the span of 3 years during the Ummid era. Egyptians were happy to do so out of their own convictions in many cases. However, this famous Egyptian piety was unfortunately abused by the Mamluks. Egypt’s wealth was systematically being sequestered across the ages driven by the unconnected-ness of the ruling elite to the Egyptian people. I worry that more of that is happening now and that instead of foreigners abusing Egyptians, it is now Egyptians abusing others. This deserves an article of its own and its time hasn't come yet.

]


I need to familiarize the reader with this region. In a straight line, the distance between Suneyta and the Elespi Gezira (this is where his ezba in the Manatja region was obviously located) is about three hours (i.e. 12miles/20km). But my companion said that we should not take that road because there are many Egyptian izbas on the way and perhaps we might get attacked.

At that point I understood his ulterior motive. But since I did not know what to do, I surrendered myself to the mercy of God and told him: "Do as you know." He replied: "Mathafish" (don't be afraid), and led the way through the San Khakir desert. I was following pondering on the place that my fate had destined me to die..........On foot we arrived at a river named Masraf Oumegrim, and he stopped. Here there was no boat or other means to get across. So I either had to undress and cross floating on the water, or to ride on his back. He told me:" dismount, and let's sit down a bit to figure out how to cross."

After we had smoked a cigarette, with calm and polite way, I made him understand that this was not time to be sitting down. Thus, I managed to make him get up to search for a place in the river to cross to the other side. After a while he found such a spot. He got the donkeys across, and then he returned for me.

At that point, I saw that he had a different look in his face. He asked me if I had money as well as a revolver. There was no doubt left in my mind anymore of his intentions. Calmly, I told him that I only had this money, 17 pounds, and if he killed me he would have nothing to gain other than a sin before God.

Through buying him out with the money and with my placating behavior and words I managed to make him help me cross the river..........

I pulled myself together and we rode off. Ahead of us always the endless desert and small mountains. We arrived at the Elespi Gezira of a famous Bedouin who has his izba there. There I saw fallakhs working, and I felt reassured. I then started talking to my companion. I told him, now that we were approaching my izba, he should say nothing to my fallakhs of what happened. He just needed to say that he was an acquaintance of mine and that I accompanied him so that he would not get attacked on the road.

We arrived at the izba, I gave him the corn and he left. The time was 3:00 p.m. I sat down a bit, and I saw my fallakhs coming, one after the other, wondering how I made it and to get some news.

I told them what I knew and I reassured them by telling them that order will return and looting, wherever it happened, will not go unpunished.

The following day everyone went to his work. I invited to the house my faithful Berber guard of the warehouse (barn). Privately, I told him everything and I asked him to ride the donkey, to go to the izba in Tall Rak, to open the warehouse and give seed to the fallakhs for the sowing. My objective for his going there was to be a witness of anything that would happen. Indeed, he left at that time of the morning.

Right after that, I invited the governmental guard of the izba. I instructed him to take the saddle-bag and a letter and go to Salihiya and to bring me provisions as written, as well as, news from the grocer there. After much hesitation I was able to convince him that he had nothing to fear. And he took the letter and left.

The day was going by, and my head was filling with the rumors brought to me by my foreman, as well as, from friendly neighbors. The most significant one was that in the vicinity there was another Greek nazir who left for Faqus wearing a fez. The night was approaching, and the messenger I had sent to Salihiya had not returned yet. In the meantime the fallakhs returned from their work and sitting down they were chitchatting.

The night went by restlessly and the dawn arrived sweetly – this was to be the terrible day of March 21. The fallakhs all went to their work. Impatiently, I was waiting for the return of my messenger. At 10:00 a.m. the guard finally returned and he handed me the letter he brought from Salihiya.With anticipation I read the following words: "Come immediately to Salihiya. There is nothing to fear. Haralambos."

[My comments:
Salihiya has an airport. Being on the outskirts of the Nile Delta and close to the Suez Canal, it is likely that the British maintained a major contingent in Salihiya and order was better maintained there.
]

I calmed down a bit and decided to leave for Salihiya the next day. But, unfortunately, things were not the way I had planned. The guard gave me other news orally. And then he left telling me that he, as all others, was invited by the mayor to present himself and to surrender his arms. The day went by peacefully. At about 5:00 p.m. I sat down to do the day's payroll, when at about 5:30 p.m. I saw coming running the contractor responsible for the izba's drainage system and in terror he shouted: "Yia khawaga, leave immediately and go hide somewhere."

Without suspecting anything at that time, I asked him: "Why?" And he told me that many rebels from outside the izba had come and they would do what they had done to the others; and that "I'm afraid that they may kill you."

There was no time to think. I replied to him that I was going to stay and that the rebels could do whatever they wanted. He left and I was alone thinking how I could find a way to get out. I knew that they had surrounded the izba; and if they saw me leaving they would not hesitate to shoot me like a dog. While I was thinking, I saw an izba woman climbing the back wall of the izba urging me to go to her house and telling me that she was sent by my hool (foreman).

At the same time, I could hear shouting and threats near the izba; because the hool was trying to stop them from coming in.

This was the beginning of the tragedy. Not able to think anymore, I came out from my room and went to meet them. In the yard I ran into an izba fallakh who asked me if I had any money to give him. I didn't respond and came out. I recognized my hool, the government guard, and people from the izba as well as others who were quarrelling with each other.

When they saw me, I approached them and said hello. Surprised, they all stopped quarrelling and then looking at me they started threatening and insulting me. The guard approached me, pulled me aside and said: "you now go inside. It is not time to be outside." I obeyed, and accompanied by him I went into my room and lighted the lamp.

Not much time had gone by and I saw a whole bunch of them entering the room. I was seated on the chair in from of my desk. With the thieves were izba people as well as the hool. They approached me, and their leader told me: " Yia khawaga, we are sent to take your money and your revolver". And simultaneously, before I could answer, another one strikes me with a naboot (wooden shaft) on the chest and removes my watch and my coat.

[My comment:
This dialog is another sign that the revolt was organized. Note when they say that “we are sent to take …” These were not random acts by local residents of each izba but were rather the act of an organized group of people.
]


In the meantime, the hool intervened, and by pleading with them managed to free me from their hands. I am refraining here from writing their horrible threats and insults.

Finally, I recovered and told them:" I have neither money nor a revolver. And if you want to kill me, pull your guns, not with sticks like children – "halikom rigal" (be men)

The hool intervened again and stopped them. And now begins the looting of the house: beds, mattresses, and many pieces of furniture disappeared. Some were collecting the stuff and others were moving them outside.

When the cleaning of the house was complete, the leader, always holding a huge gun, told me: " yia hawaga, get up and open the warehouse for them; and take the lamp with you." I obeyed the order and got out of the room heading for the warehouse. But before I arrived there, the mob had broken the door and was waiting for the lamp.

We entered the warehouse, and the looting of the cereals began: corn, rice and various other materials and seeds flew off! During all this time, the leader of the gang was standing by me holding that gun. And at the end he said to me: "Matizalsh (don't get upset) yia hawaga. These grains will go to feed the army who will fight for the faith of Islam."
[My comments:
This dialog here is the most revealing part of the memoir. It shows several aspects of the 1919 revolution.

1- It shows again the pacifist nature of Egyptians. Imagine the poor farmer who is taking away all the belongings from the warehouse, yet he bothered to condole the foreigner.
2- What is more important, the poor farmer was truly convicted that this is a sacrifice that is made Islam. It is likely that he felt what he was doing was wrong but can only be justified on the basis that the bounties will go to feed the army of Islam. Of course that army did not exist and was never created. However the illiterate Egyptian farmer truly acted upon what he thought his religious convictions are.

This dialogue is quite revealing. It shows that the simple-minded poor Egyptian fellah was acting not only out of his desire to resist oppression and deprivation, but also out of a Pan-Islamic motivation.

That is where the disconnection between the masses and the Egyptian political elite in Cairo started. Cairo elites ignored the pan-Islam aspiration completely.

It is true that Egyptian masses had a vague notion that is mixing both nationalism and pan-Islam. In the minds of Egyptians, there is no strong demarcation between the two. Even Egyptian Christians at the time viewed themselves as part of the Islamic civilization at large. Therefore, Egyptians saw their true identity as both Egyptian and Islamic simultaneously.

Cairo elites failed to connect to either the Islamic feelings of the Egyptian masses or to their sense of deprivation. Therefore, by narrowing the goals to only independence from Britain, Cairo elites failed to achieve the two major objectives of the average revolting Egyptians – namely freedom from deprivation and economic utilization, and a political channel to develop the peoples’ Pan-Islamic feelings. These two failures proved devastating later on. Deprivation and economic utilization led to the nationalization and wealth redistribution that occurred during the 1950s and 1960s. A political outlet for the people’s Pan-Islamic feeling is a problem that we live till today with far more compounding effects than in 1919. The poor uneducated Egyptian farmer felt –in 1919—that he needed the binding force that connects Muslims together at a time when the binding force was disintegrating and the Ottoman Empire was being dismantled.

One cannot blame Saad Pasha or the Egyptian Cairo elite for these failures. After all, it was impossible to achieve all of these goals at once. This was a tall order for any politicians under the circumstances in Egypt. This represents the mismatch between people’s expectations in the Middle East and what their politicians could achieve given reality. Reality on the ground in 1919 was that the most powerful army in the world was occupying Egypt and didn’t want to let go and had many imperial reasons (chief among them is Egypt’s location and the Suez Canal) not to let go. So, no Egyptian politician had the luxury to go after the dreams of the poor and uneducated Egyptian farmer – the abolition of foreign control of the economy, elimination of deprivation and economic utilization, and the realization of an Islamic renaissance! It is interesting to note that this mismatch is still as valid today as it was in 1919. Dreams and aspiration of the people of the Middle East are still in sharp contrast to the political realities in Arab capitals.

Nevertheless, the background of Saad Pasha himself contributed to the eventual failure of the 1919 revolution. Saad Pasha married the daughter of a former prime minister who is known to hold pro-British sentiment. Before leaving his post in Cairo, Lord Cromer thought that Saad Pasha has moderate views particularly because of his marriage to Safia. Saad Pasha also underestimated the depth of Egypt’s ties to the rest of its Arab and Muslim environ. In a discussion with Abdel-Rahman Pasha Azzam (who later became the first secretary general of the Arab league), Saad Pasha said: “zero plus zero equals what, Azzam” referring to Egypt plus its Arab neighbors.

Although he started by studying in a religious Kuttab (or religious school), Saad Pasha was not particularly devout. It is also safe to say that Saad Pasha himself (in his personal life) was not the ideal leader of such a revolution.

]


After they emptied the warehouse, I asked permission to exit. When I got out I heard at a distance my hool shouting to them to leave my gamousa (water buffalo) alone. Because outside, some were loading, others were taking animals and others were transporting.

In other words it was a bedlam. I entered in my room and I saw the izba fallakh follow me with the lamp. He asked me if I cared for coffee and he went to light the fire. And he also brought coffee from his house because in my room there was nothing left not even a small coffee cup. As for me, I felt relieved and I thanked God because I thought that my troubles ended here.

I was sipping my coffee when suddenly the hool called me to go outside the room. There in the darkness, away from the fallakh, he told me: "yia khawaga, take my abayia (a long piece of clothing worn on top of all others) and wear it" and he suggested a spot where "I shall send you my son to accompany you to Barozis' izba where you can stay at the house of my brother-in-law." He also told me that they could not take my gamousa, and that they'd return to take the rest of the cattle and "to kill you. That's why you need to leave immediately". And he hands me the abayia. I resisted his proposition, suspecting that there could be a conspiracy to kill me far away from the izba. But the hool continued to urge me and plead with me saying: "it is impossible for me to let you die. Because, before you die, I must die first."


There was no much time left. Because, in addition to the leader who came to the izba, not more than 150 meters away, there were others, his superiors standing there from whom he was getting his orders. I put on the abayia and as I was without a hat (George's note: in those days, the European dress code dictated that you had to have a hat; Even on the izbas...) I departed for the predetermined spot and met his kid. And on foot we set out for Barozis izba which is about one hour away (i.e. 4 miles/6.5km).

The moon had risen, and I with my companion, walking always through places off the beaten track, away from the main road, arrived at the izba. We entered the house of his brother-in-law and we brought him up to date. After we drank our coffee, a meeting took place away from me in another room. They decided that I should not stay there because they were afraid they could not keep it a secret. And if "they" found out, the owner of the house could be in trouble.

[My comment:
I am surprised how much Egyptians were used to coffee at that time. Anybody who knows Egypt now realizes that coffee almost disappeared leaving tea as the only drink in the countryside. This transformation is worth studying at one point !
]

They came and notified me of their decision and forced me to get up and get out. All three together we came out of the house and after we were away some distance from the izba I implored them to take me to Salihiya. But they would not agree. The hool's son was afraid of his father and said: "I'll take you to my father and he can do with you whatever he wants." There was no other way. And here again we set out for my izba through fields of barsim (tall green clover used for animal feed) and cultivated land. We had approached and were within approximately 300 meters from the izba when we heard voices. We agreed that I should stay there, hidden in the fouls ( Egyptian fava beans) plants and they would proceed to find and talk to the hool. Not much time had gone by and I heard at a distance gang-member voices as they were approaching the spot where I was hiding.

I got up and ducking I moved to another spot inside the field of fouls. Because I was afraid that possibly I was betrayed. Where were they going? I don't know. Slowly, I moved away a little, and in front of me I heard others voices and shouting. I was forced to sit where I was, since in the meantime the moon had arisen and I was afraid that I could be detected. The thought crossed my mind that my hool had betrayed me. But this is not true. Because the gang approached me and within 50 meters they sat down and started recounting their feats as well as talking about my escape. Some were saying that the izba employees hid me. And others that I was gone heading for Salihiya as they were told by my hool.

Finally, after a long meeting they decided to take the road leading to Salihiya. They then got up and dispersed in the field of fouls. And after they finished eating and made sure that I was not there, they came out and got on their way. Many hours of silence had gone by and I was reflecting upon my life experiences. The scenes of war (note: Angelis fought in the Balkan wars of Greece) and so many other frightful days that I had experienced. And concluding by reflecting on my luck and where I was destined to be buried. It was 2:00 a.m. And from far I saw coming towards me a tall man wearing a white gelebia, looking for something in the field of fouls. I made sure it was my hool and I talked to him. He approached me, and he encouraged me saying: "Mathafish" (don't be afraid). He took his time and told me what had happened; That "they" had taken all the animals; That there were only four employees left on the izba; And that the rest had left to catch up with me on the road, because "I told them that you left heading for Salihiya."

He told me that: " I'm very afraid that they will find you tomorrow if you stayed here. Therefore, I have made arrangement with the government guard to take you to Tel Gin(?)". And that " he will wait for you in a specific spot" where the hool instructed him to go. Tel Gin is east of the izba about 1 ½ hours away (i.e.6miles/10km). A place with lakes and low mountains.

[My comments:
That part of Egypt now has no lakes whatsoever. Apparently what is now confined to some lakes east of Port Said used to extend southwards all the way down to Sharkieya (see map above). I don’t know if that is a good or a bad sign for the environment. However, this is again worth studying.
]

I was convinced that the hool wanted to save me; this is why I did not present any resistance to his plans and suggestions. We got up, and through fields of barsim we set out to the place where the guard was waiting for us. I leave it up to the reader to use his imagination on what all this moving around entails: going through lakes, mountains and the desert that wears you down. Because I cannot find appropriate words for my pen.

[My comments:
It is remarkable that our semi-illiterate Greek friend is even at times poetic given the circumstances. I have to say that his faith in God and good moral character had saved him from a near-certain death.
]


On foot, we arrived at a place called Tel Sabaa Banat. And we sat down to rest and to smoke a cigarette. And because I had none, as they were removed from me, my companion gave me one. After we had rested a bit, we got up because dawn was approaching and we did not want to be seen by anyone. As we were walking, I asked the guard about the names of these places. And he gave me names that I only had heard about, during my 15 months in this region. The crack of dawn was approaching while the moon's bright light was beginning to fade, as we were approaching the famous Tel Gin izba. Barking dogs welcome us as we entered a house. A woman woke up, and started scolding her husband: " What time is this? Where have you been?" She realized that he was not alone and she stopped for a while. She lit the lamp and started making coffee.

In the meantime, she became aware of my presence and recognized that I' was not a fellow believer and started yelling at her husband: "where did you get me this nosrani (Christian) from?" and much more.

[My comment:

This is another sign of the religious component of the 1919 revolution. Even the uneducated woman in a deeply buried Izba in Egypt’s hinterland had the same feelings we discussed before.
]

Angelis, always a victim, bears it...With many placating and appeasing words, so that others in the izba don't notice us, we managed to quiet her down. I felt sick and tired with my life. And I suggested to him to find a way for me to leave for Salihiya. He promised me he would do it after we had a chance to rest and eat. "I'll dress you up well and we'll ride off." And so it happened.

After we ate, he went out to get the animals ready. When he returned, he started sounding different, changing his words and giving me another story. And through all this he made it clear to me that he wanted to be compensated for his efforts. I told him that I had no money on me, and that I would compensate him after we arrived at Salihiya. But, he did not want to hear any of this, and he counter proposed for me to write a deed of sale to him for my gamousa and date it as if it happened three months before.

I agreed, and told him to write such document and I signed it. From this, it was evident to me that he too was a member of the gang. And I began getting worried again. I let him take his time, and I did not urge him to hurry up although I was getting to be very anxious. When the donkeys were ready, I wore a gelebia (a long male garment) and a takia (Egyptian villager's bonnet) and I looked exactly like a Bedouin. And we rode and left for Salihiya. On the road I was not worrying at all, because, the way I was dressed, it was impossible to be recognized by anyone.

We arrived at the village of Munajah Koubra. And another "knife" pierced my heart. On the road, and at distance of about 50 meters, I saw an Egyptian wearing my coat. I looked more carefully and I recognized the gang leader who the night before was holding the big gun at me.

I told my companion to wrap himself better in his garments so that they don't recognize us, and we went passed them. Because the leader was not alone; there were another three men with him.

On this road, they had no other business than to wait for me. With the help of God, we passed right in front of them. We arrived at Salihiya where peace and tranquility were reigning thanks to a contingent of the English Army that was there. I met the Greeks that were there and I described to them the events of my last six days.

This is my adventure during the revolution in Egypt.

I wrote the present for me to remember.

Salihiya 24/3/1919

Signature: A. Angelakis


[My comment:

This of course was a happy ending for Angelis. But let us review how the 1919 revolution itself ended.

The crisis started in November 1918 when Saad Pasha went introduced himself to the British as the head of a delegate (Wafd). Saad Pasha introduced the Egyptian aspiration for full independence and to seek permission to go to Paris and attend the Versailles peace conference representing the aspiration of the Egyptian people for self-determination.

Balfour (British foreign minister at the time and whose name became infamous in Arab minds for other reasons) rejected Saad’s request to go to Paris right offhand. Wanting to diffuse the tension, Rushdi Pasha the pro-Britain prime minister of Egypt offered to go himself instead of Saad. Again, Balfour declined the offer. Balfour wrote to Wingate (British high commissioner in Cairo): “Britain has no intention to relinquish its responsibility toward order and good governance in Egypt… As you know well, the stage at which Egyptians can practice self-determination has not been reached yet.”

Saad Pasha started organizing demonstration campaign across Egypt to supporting his demands. Fearing unrest at a critical time that can attract attention toward Egypt and detract from British goal of isolating Egypt from events in the world, Balfour became more lenient and allowed Rushdy Pasha to go to London to present Egypt’s demands (instead of going to Paris). Fearing the appearance of sell-off, Rushdy insisted that Saad must accompany him there. Balfour declined and Rushdy resigned on March 1, 1919.

Saad Pasha was later deported to Malta which led to an immediate and violent reaction in Cairo and across Egypt. The Brits were dumbfounded particularly at how fast the revolution spread to the provinces away from Cairo (which should come now at no surprise to us from our current vintage point knowing what we now know about the then current state of Egypt’s fellahin).

News of the revolution were completely counter to everything that Britain wanted in Egypt. Allenby was dispatched to Egypt with a full mandate to restore calm and order. Allenby lobbied hard to return Saad Pasha back to Egypt, in which he eventually succeeded. Britain dispatched the Milner commission to Egypt to investigate the events that led to the eruption of violence. The commission concluded that Egypt will have to eventually gain some form of independence. The commission also concluded that the British interests in Egypt could be preserved through a negotiated Anglo-Egyptian treaty that replaces the protectorate status of Egypt.

Safia Zaghloul (Saad Pasha's wife) came from a wealthy Egyptian family. Pictures shows her French handwriting, her father (Mostafa Fahmi Pasha former Prime Minister), and finally Safia Hanem with her father while vacationing in Vichy, France.

Adly Pasha who replaced Rushdy as prime minister convinced Saad to accompany him to London to negotiate the new treaty. After weeks of negotiations, the basis of a treaty was reached. According to the treaty, Egypt will become independent while Britain will defend Egypt in the case of war. Britain will also maintain armed forces in Egypt to guard its imperial transportation but such forces would not represent any form of occupation.

Saad Pasha in London and Paris. In London, Saad Pasha was able to reach reasonable terms with the Brits. But unable to confront his supporters in Egypt that any treaty will have a conditional independence, he bailed out and the whole treaty collapsed.

Although terms of the treaty were quite reasonable given the political realities, Saad Pasha couldn’t sign it in the last minute. Adly couldn’t sign as well fearing that Saad will accuse him of treason. In July 1921, Adly went to London for the final push toward signing a treaty. Feeling the divisions on the Egyptian side, the British government entrenched in its position again and Adly couldn’t agree to the concessions that they again asked for. Violence erupted again in Egypt.

Saad was again deported and Allenby used extreme force in Egypt to guarantee that events of March won’t be repeated again. In absence of a negotiated settlement, Allenby proposed to London that Britain must unilaterally grant Egypt a conditional independence. The London cabinet was divided on the proposal, but eventually agreed and issued what became known as the declaration of 28 February 1922. Egypt was granted independence with 4 conditions related to safeguarding British imperial interests and foreign commercial interests in Egypt.

Let us now look at the tally of the 1919 revolution.

On one hand the ambitions of the Egyptians were not achieved. Egypt gained nominal independence, but foreign domination of all aspects of Egyptian life continued. Utilization and deprivation continued. And of course, the army of Islam never happened.

Egyptian political elite agreed initially to a narrow set of goals – namely achieving full independence from Britain. This compromise also was not achieved. Egypt gained only nominal independence which was realistic given the circumstances. Nevertheless, Egypt political elite was unable to face the nation with political reality. Saad Pasha could not tell his supporters that a negotiated settlement with Britain is the only realistic option given British global imperial goals and the significant disparity between Egypt and Britain in strength. Saad Pasha couldn’t also tell his nation that Egypt has made an incremental gain in its fight for independence and that one battle was won in a long war. Saad Pasha couldn’t do that. This left a major mark on Egyptian politics even till now where Arab political leaders resort to rhetoric to assuage the population at the expense of facing reality. This is even in the narrow goal of achieving independence. Cairo political elite totally ignored the other goals of achieving Pan-Islamic aspiration and achieving economical equality and social justice leading to major ramification that we still live through till today.

Finally, Yasser Arafat and Saad Pasha were similar in many respects.

Starting on the path of a negotiated settlement, Yasser Arafat knew real well that such a path would lead to conditional Palestinian independence. Nevertheless, Arafat chose to tell his people otherwise and in the last minute was unable to sign to the Camp David treaty. His Arab backers in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, who both knew real well that the treaty would lead to a compromise, were unable to back Arafat toward the proposed settlement – which was the most realistic at the time. Arafat in the end decided to bide for time on the hope that the new Bush administration will be as pro-Palestinian as that of Bush senior. As we all know that was a major losing gamble. Like Saad Pasha, Arafat could have faced his people that this settlement was the best he could achieve now and ask them if it was acceptable or not. The mismatch between political realities in Arab capitals and the people ambitions still goes on. We still live its consequences till today. Arab leaders need to learn from history how to face reality and face their people with the truly available options.


Safia Zaghloul and Suha Arafat. It is hard to resist the similarities between the two wives. Both came from wealthy families, both survived their husbands, and both led prosperous lives afterwards. Both husbands were unable to confront their peoples with political reality. I can only speculate (and there is evidence to support the speculation) that both wives contributed to isolating their husbands from the true feelings of their peoples.

This was as close as I got to the big bang.

]