The Uncertainty

There are increasing signs that the Egyptian government is entering a period of uncertainty. This is the uncertainty that faces someone who had a plan (passing presidency to Mr. Gamal Mubarak) for a long time and then the plan suddenly faces significant resistance to the extent that it backfires. The natural reaction of the government is to contain the resistance, pretend the plan never existed, and manage the fallout especially with the important constituencies (such as Europe and the US). Instead of finding a real alternative plan, the Egyptian government now tries to pretend the original plan is not there and everything is normal while in reality reserving a space in the future to resurrect the original plan at the opportune moment.

The Many Faces of Egypt's Resistance to the Status Quo. From Top to Bottom: (1) Egyptian Judges Stand for Independent Judiciary and Against Revoking Their Right to Speak Against Election Rigging. (2) Poor Sections of Egyptian Cities Demonstrated Against Status Quo and the Plan to Extend it Through Rigged Elections. (3) Even the Wealthy and Most Westernized Section of Societies (Students of the Americans University in Cairo) Rose Against the Status Quo. These are Section of Society that Are Supposed to be the Most Loyal.

[As an aside, nobody has anything against Mr. Gamal. He may be the truly the best person to rule Egypt. However, the problem is in the cultural impact of inheriting the presidency. Think about everybody in Egypt now doing the same and passing his profession to his children and even twisting the law to do so. If you complain that is already happening, wait until you see the presidency passed in that way. The other implication is that long-term effect on Egyptian politics and the chances of being a freer society with citizens exercising their free right to elect with no impositions.]

Let us first look at the signs of attempting to control the backfire and managing the fallout.

Egyptian Government Used Significant Violence to Control Demonstrations in Egypt During the Judges Crisis in May 2006. Journalists were Jailed and Demonstrators were Beaten and Jailed for Simply Expressing Their Opinions. The Violent Campaign is Part of Strategy to Quell the Unrest and Ensure It Doesn't Spread.

1- Usage of violence in the streets and absolute zero tolerance of demonstrations for the fear they escalate into something bigger that can potentially shake the regime.

Judges Bastawisy (left) and Mekky (right) Spoke Against Vote Rigging During 2005 Elections and Subsequently Faced Prosecution Because of That. The Stand of the Rest of Judges and the Egyptian People Next to the Two Judges Forced the Regime to Save Face and Reach A Compromise. The Affair Proved the Ability of Egyptian People Not Only To Resist the Status Quo but to Force It to Change.

2- The verdict on the two judges Mekki and Basatouisi is seen as a compromise in which they got no real punishment whatsoever to avoid them becoming magnets of dissent and at the same time they didn’t go with no slap on the wrist – otherwise it would have been seen as a capitulation by the regime leading to further and similar acts of defiance from the same or other quarters.

3- President Mubarak has been spending most of his time outside Egypt in Germany for 2nd time in 2 months to inaugurate a museum and in Spain to inaugurate another – while avoiding attending the conference of the nine largest Islamic nations and sending instead a minister without portfolio making Egypt the least represented nation of all nine. This is a sign that Mubarak is trying to sense how his regime is perceived in Europe (which is an important constituency) opting to visit generally friendly and courteous countries such as Germany and Spain. Europe is generally safe territory for Arab heads of state because European countries are sensitive to upsetting the status quo in their Southern neighbors triggering a mess they have to deal with (because of their proximity) or even worse, triggering boat mass exodus to European shores. These visits also show the Egyptian people that the regime still has the full backing of the outside world.

President Mubarak Inaugurating a Museum Show in Berlin. In His Second Visit to Germany in 2 Months, the President is Trying to Manage the Fallout of the Internal Crisis in Egypt on the Image of His Regime in European Capitals. Still President Mubarak Cannot Risk a Similar Visit to the US Seen As "Unfriendly" Territory Simply Because the Americans Will Not be Shy of Talking Tough. Even if the US Administration is Shy (for Various Interests), the American Press Won't.

4- At the sametime, President Mubarak is avoiding a visit to the US seen as unfriendly territory since a visit will attract all kinds of dissent from Christian groups to Congress to media and can be a major embarrassment. The solution is to send someone to feel the waters on a secret mission. That someone cannot be Nazif since he did well last time in establishing relationships. This can only now be entrusted to Gamal Mubarak.

Mr. Gamal made a secret back-channel visit to the US. The primary purpose was to visit National Security Advisor Hadley. The National Security Council in the US is responsible for coordinating foreign policy and intelligence affair and traditionally has been the backdoor to secret unofficial messages to an American president. Otherwise, official communication has a whole apparatus dedicated to it through the department of state. If, as Mr. Gamal claims, he visited the US as an emissiary from the National Democratic Party to discuss his party's reform agenda , the normal channel would be to meet with members of the US national Democratic or Republican committees, which are the US national parties leaderships. Claiming that a meeting with US national security advisor is to discuss the Egyptian National Democratic Party reform agenda is an insult to our intelligence and makes the assumption that we know nothing about how the US government works.

Reserving Future Space for The Old Plan

Finally, let us look at the telltale sign that the original plan is still under consideration.

AP reporter: "You said you don't have a desire or intention, but you know … desires do change, and intentions."

Mr. Gamal Mubarak: "Let me just respond to this one just to get it out of the way. My statement stands, go back and read my statement, I made it absolutely clear and I'm not going to be dragged into responding to that question again. Go back and read my statement. Okay, back to the first question ..."
AP reporter: "I read them, that's why I told you."

Mr. Gamal Mubarak: "Okay, read it again, read it again, read it again."

Why is Mr. Gamal Mubarak that upset about it? He actually doesn’t get asked that question often – only when he sees foreign reporters in Egypt which didn’t start until recently. He could have denied it again. However, the key to understanding Mr. Gamal Mubarak anger is that the question was looking for a categorical answer and is really dragging him to deny that it will ever happen in the future. This probably made Mubarak feel that he is literally being dragged into a position that will make him sound he changed his mind in the future or into revealing his real intentions. The reporter was asking for an answer that says "I will never be a president." In American politics, you are always taught to never say never. The reporter wanted the "never" word. The problem with a statement like "I don't have intentions", is that I can have no intention of doing something but eventually I do it either because circumstances change or because my friends and family pressure me to, or because it is in the interest of the country, or for whatever reason. The word "I have no intention" is often used in American politics to simply signal I reserve my space in the future.

Mr. Gamal Mubarak Speaking at A National Democratic Party Press Conference. April 2006.