Difficulties for Egyptian Regime?

There are increasing signs that Mubarak's regime is facing difficulties:
1- Usage of violence to crush demonstrations is an indication that his tolerance has ended and he is deeply worried that things may go out of control.

2- Constant change of position: article 76 last year, then announcing it will take 2 years to amend the constitution, then now it is happening in November.

3- His inaccurate labeling of Shiaa as having their loyalty to Iran. Saudi Arabia immediately dispatched prince Saud Al-Faisal to find out why Mubarak is stirring the pot. This was a slip of the tongue from an aging president.

4- Constant mishandling of Christian question in Egypt. Add the mishandling of terrorism to that and the absence of an agenda in the country that excites and motivates people.

What is Going On?

In the absence of government transparency, it is really hard to find out what is going on. One can speculate though given the signs abound. My interpretation of what is going on is:

1- Mubarak is clearly aging.

2- There are entrenched interests in Egypt and in the Arab world in particular who have direct vested interest in maintaining the status quo. This ranges from the financial interest to the political. Gamal Mubarak presents the hope fopreservingng the current financial interests in Egypt and political stability in the Arab world. No Gulf country has an interest in seeing another revolution rattling Egypt. Besides, none of the business elite in Egypt has an interest in a big shake-up.

3- The attempt at a gentle push of Gamal has back fired and apparently this was unexpected. This knocked the regime off guard with no clear path forward. It puts itself under undue distress. The reaction from judges, professors, professionals, etc. was also totally unexpected. The regime has outsmarted itself. Its attempt to show a democratic picture and at the same time maintain the status quo was a dangerous game and it essentially overdid the democratic facelifting which opened a crack in the regime for many elements of society to vent its steam.

Regime's Plan

The only path-forward the regime can imagine now is to:
a. Focus on improving economy by using revenues from oil and gas, and maybe that will make Egyptians happier so can go back to the original plan.

b. Denying that Gamal has any ambitions but still show that economic progress is because of his talents.

c. Use violence in the street to ensure that demonstrations don't spread during the critical period leading to potential economic stabilization.

d. Most importantly, rely on Egyptians' notorious fast fading of energy. As they say, Egyptian fire burns quickly.

Is the Plan Working?

The plan is not generally working for a variety of reasons:
a. Egyptians are unlikely to link economic growth to Mubarak senior or junior.

b. It is hard to imagine that any level of effort in Egypt without transparency, rule of law, fairness, etc. can lead to sustainable economic growth. Problem is that these changes run counter to the entrenched interests.

c. The use of violence is dissuading massive Egyptian participation for sure. However, it is increasing the alienation and the deep-seated skepticism. Also, it makes the more extreme elements of the society to emerge into leading positions, which doesn't bode well for the future.

That is not to say that the plan may not at the end works simply because of the last but most important factor: resistance's will to fight may just simply fade in the absence of wide public support. Mubarak himself said that he predicts a time of tranquility after the current political mobility.

Is the Future Predictable?

It is hard to predict the future under these circumstances. But there are few certainties:

1- Mubarak will die.

2- If he dies before establishing his son, the chances will be lowered; although the entrenched interests (mostly represented in the NDP) may still attempt to pull it through.

3- This will be pitted against several elements in the society: judges, professionals, brotherhood, kifaya, leftists, judges, etc.

4- The installation of Gamal as president will face resistance.

5- At the same time, there is no clear leadership that emerged. Everything is so far embryonic on the other side.

6- Therefore, the battle will be difficult and not easy.

My guess is the scenario can be as follows:
1- There will be a significant attempt to put Gamal as president.

2- This attempt will for sure be resisted or at the very least resented.

3- If (emphasis on if) resisted vigorously a compromise solution will emerge.

4- The compromise will be to put someone else with Gamal behind him as the main power broker. This can be an army guy who is really an employee while Gamal serves still in the NDP and has all the entrenched interests behind him; essentially the money.

5- The problem is that this scenario is being left as a last resort. Therefore, there is a chance it will be cooked up at the end and potentially leading to a chaotic situation. The identity of that guy is also unclear and he might have his own agenda at the end too. A power struggle can easily emerge esp. if wide resistance to Gamal emerges in the country.

Egypt deserves a better plan. Egypt deserves real options.

The coming 3 years have a lot !